United States presidential election in Virginia, 2004

Main article: United States presidential election, 2004
United States presidential election in Virginia, 2004
2000 ←
 November 2, 2004
 → 2008
 
Nominee George W. Bush John Kerry
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Texas Massachusetts
Running mate Dick Cheney John Edwards
Electoral vote 13 0
Popular vote 1,716,959 1,454,742
Percentage 53.7% 45.5%
President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

 Elected President

George W. Bush
Republican

The 2004 United States presidential election in Virginia took place on November 2, 2004 throughout all 50 states and D.C., which was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 13 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for President and Vice President.

Virginia was won by incumbent President George W. Bush by an 8.2% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all 12 news organizations considered this a state Bush would win, or otherwise considered as a safe red state. The state has voted for the Republican candidate in all presidential elections since 1952 except during 1964's Democratic landslide. On election day, the state once again lived up to its reputation as a solid red state, as incumbent President George W. Bush won here by a comfortable margin, with an 8.2% margin of victory over Democratic senator John Kerry, a tiny increase from his victory in 2000 against Al Gore.

Contents

Primaries

Campaign

Predictions

Elections in Virginia

There were 12 news organizations who made state by state predictions of the election. Here are there last predictions before election day.[1]

  1. D.C. Political Report: Solid Republican
  2. Associated Press: Leans Bush
  3. CNN: Bush
  4. Cook Political Report: Lean Republican
  5. Newsweek: Lean Bush
  6. New York Times: Lean Bush
  7. Rasmussen Reports: Bush
  8. Research 2000: Solid Bush
  9. Washington Post: Bush
  10. Washington Times: Solid Bush
  11. Zogby International: Bush
  12. Washington Dispatch: Bush

Polling

Bush won every single pre-election poll. The final 3 poll average showed Bush leading 50% to 46%.[2]

Fundraising

Bush raised $8,594,386.[3] Kerry raised $6,125,128.[4]

Advertising and visits

Neither campaign advertised or visited this state during the fall election.[5][6]

Analysis

In the last century Virginia has shifted from a largely rural, politically Southern and conservative state to a more urbanized, pluralistic, and politically moderate environment. Up until the 1970s, Virginia was a racially divided single-party state dominated by the Byrd Organization.[7] African Americans were effectively disfranchised until after passage of civil rights legislation in the mid-1960s.[8] Enfranchisement and immigration of other groups, especially Hispanics, have placed growing importance on minority voting.[9] Regional differences play a large part in Virginia politics.[10] Rural southern and western areas moved to support the Republican Party in response to its "southern strategy", while urban and growing suburban areas, including Northern Virginia, form the Democratic Party base.[11][12] Democratic support also persists in union-influenced parts of Southwest Virginia, college towns such as Charlottesville and Blacksburg, and the southeastern Black Belt Region.[13][14]

Results

United States presidential election in Virginia, 2004
Party Candidate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Republican George W. Bush (incumbent) 1,716,959 53.7% 13
Democratic John Kerry 1,454,742 45.5% 0
Libertarian Michael Badnarik 11,032 0.3% 0
Constitution Michael Peroutka 10,161 0.3% 0
Write Ins 5,473 0.2% 0
Totals - 100.00% 13
Voter turnout (Voting age population) 57.2%

Results breakdown

By county

These results combine counties and independent cities in Virginia.

County or City Kerry % Kerry # Bush % Bush # Other % Other #
Accomack County, Virginia 41.3% 5,518 57.8% 7,726 0.8% 112
Albemarle County, Virginia 50.5% 22,088 48.5% 21,189 1.0% 449
Alleghany County, Virginia 44.5% 3,203 55.1% 3,962 0.4% 30
Amelia County, Virginia 34.5% 1,862 64.8% 3,499 0.7% 36
Amherst County, Virginia 38.3% 4,866 61.1% 7,758 0.6% 71
Appomattox County, Virginia 32.9% 2,191 65.6% 4,366 1.5% 98
Arlington County, Virginia 67.6% 63,987 31.3% 29,635 1.1% 1,028
Augusta County, Virginia 23.6% 7,019 74.4% 22,100 2.0% 585
Bath County, Virginia 36.3% 828 62.8% 1,432 1.0% 22
Bedford County, Virginia 29.0% 9,102 69.8% 21,925 1.2% 377
Bland County, Virginia 29.5% 846 68.5% 1,962 2.0% 57
Botetourt County, Virginia 30.4% 4,801 68.8% 10,865 0.8% 131
Brunswick County, Virginia 58.6% 4,062 41.2% 2,852 0.2% 12
Buchanan County, Virginia 53.7% 5,275 45.9% 4,507 0.5% 47
Buckingham County, Virginia 46.3% 2,789 52.8% 3,185 0.9% 53
Campbell County, Virginia 29.8% 6,862 69.1% 15,891 1.1% 244
Caroline County, Virginia 49.0% 4,878 50.2% 4,999 0.8% 77
Carroll County, Virginia 32.1% 3,888 67.4% 8,173 0.6% 67
Charles City County, Virginia 62.7% 2,155 36.5% 1,254 0.9% 30
Charlotte County, Virginia 40.9% 2,223 58.2% 3,166 0.9% 49
Chesterfield County, Virginia 36.9% 49,346 62.6% 83,745 0.5% 723
Clarke County, Virginia 41.5% 2,699 57.5% 3,741 1.0% 65
Craig County, Virginia 34.4% 901 65.1% 1,706 0.5% 14
Culpeper County, Virginia 35.1% 5,476 64.2% 10,026 0.7% 103
Cumberland County, Virginia 41.7% 1,721 57.6% 2,377 0.7% 28
Dickenson County, Virginia 50.8% 3,761 48.5% 3,591 0.7% 54
Dinwiddie County, Virginia 42.2% 4,569 57.1% 6,193 0.7% 77
Essex County, Virginia 46.2% 2,007 53.0% 2,304 0.8% 33
Fairfax County, Virginia 53.2% 245,671 45.9% 211,980 0.8% 3,728
Fauquier County, Virginia 35.8% 10,712 63.6% 19,011 0.6% 192
Floyd County, Virginia 36.9% 2,488 61.8% 4,162 1.2% 84
Fluvanna County, Virginia 40.3% 4,415 58.9% 6,458 0.8% 84
Franklin County, Virginia 36.0% 8,002 63.2% 14,048 0.8% 173
Frederick County, Virginia 31.0% 8,853 67.9% 19,386 1.1% 301
Giles County, Virginia 40.6% 3,047 57.6% 4,320 1.7% 131
Gloucester County, Virginia 31.3% 5,105 67.9% 11,084 0.9% 144
Goochland County, Virginia 34.7% 3,583 64.5% 6,668 0.8% 87
Grayson County, Virginia 34.0% 2,430 65.2% 4,655 0.7% 52
Greene County, Virginia 32.3% 2,240 65.9% 4,570 1.9% 129
Greensville County, Virginia 59.0% 2,514 40.7% 1,732 0.3% 12
Halifax County, Virginia 42.4% 6,220 57.1% 8,363 0.5% 73
Hanover County, Virginia 28.1% 13,941 71.4% 35,404 0.5% 266
Henrico County, Virginia 45.6% 60,864 53.8% 71,809 0.6% 745
Henry County, Virginia 42.0% 9,851 56.9% 13,358 1.1% 249
Highland County, Virginia 34.3% 522 64.6% 982 1.1% 16
Isle of Wight County, Virginia 37.0% 5,871 62.6% 9,929 0.4% 71
James City County, Virginia 38.4% 11,934 60.9% 18,949 0.7% 207
King and Queen County, Virginia 45.8% 1,506 52.9% 1,737 1.3% 43
King George County, Virginia 34.6% 2,739 64.7% 5,124 0.7% 58
King William County, Virginia 35.4% 2,436 64.0% 4,397 0.6% 39
Lancaster County, Virginia 39.8% 2,477 59.8% 3,724 0.5% 29
Lee County, Virginia 41.0% 4,005 58.0% 5,664 1.0% 101
Loudoun County, Virginia 43.6% 47,271 55.7% 60,382 0.7% 777
Louisa County, Virginia 40.2% 4,844 58.9% 7,083 0.9% 108
Lunenburg County, Virginia 45.0% 2,362 54.5% 2,858 0.5% 25
Madison County, Virginia 37.7% 2,176 61.6% 3,556 0.7% 40
Mathews County, Virginia 31.0% 1,589 68.2% 3,497 0.8% 43
Mecklenburg County, Virginia 41.4% 5,293 57.3% 7,319 1.3% 168
Middlesex County, Virginia 35.6% 1,914 62.0% 3,336 2.4% 127
Montgomery County, Virginia 44.8% 14,128 54.2% 17,070 1.0% 317
Nelson County, Virginia 49.6% 3,543 49.6% 3,539 0.8% 57
New Kent County, Virginia 30.7% 2,443 68.1% 5,414 1.1% 89
Northampton County, Virginia 50.5% 2,775 48.5% 2,669 1.0% 55
Northumberland County, Virginia 39.8% 2,548 59.8% 3,832 0.5% 29
Nottoway County, Virginia 43.7% 2,635 54.8% 3,303 1.5% 92
Orange County, Virginia 38.8% 5,015 59.9% 7,749 1.3% 164
Page County, Virginia 34.6% 3,324 64.8% 6,221 0.6% 58
Patrick County, Virginia 31.3% 2,572 67.0% 5,507 1.7% 136
Pittsylvania County, Virginia 33.8% 9,274 64.5% 17,673 1.7% 470
Powhatan County, Virginia 25.6% 3,112 73.6% 8,955 0.8% 96
Prince Edward County, Virginia 49.6% 3,632 48.8% 3,571 1.5% 113
Prince George County, Virginia 38.2% 5,066 61.3% 8,131 0.4% 57
Prince William County, Virginia 46.4% 61,271 52.8% 69,776 0.8% 1,016
Pulaski County, Virginia 37.3% 5,310 61.5% 8,769 1.2% 172
Rappahannock County, Virginia 45.4% 1,837 53.6% 2,172 1.0% 41
Richmond County, Virginia 37.0% 1,243 61.9% 2,082 1.1% 36
Roanoke County, Virginia 34.2% 16,082 65.1% 30,596 0.6% 295
Rockbridge County, Virginia 39.5% 3,627 58.9% 5,412 1.5% 142
Rockingham County, Virginia 24.9% 7,273 74.4% 21,737 0.7% 206
Russell County, Virginia 45.2% 5,167 53.2% 6,077 1.6% 179
Scott County, Virginia 33.4% 3,324 65.0% 6,479 1.6% 164
Shenandoah County, Virginia 30.2% 5,186 68.9% 11,820 0.8% 140
Smyth County, Virginia 33.6% 4,143 64.2% 7,906 2.2% 270
Southampton County, Virginia 45.8% 3,431 53.6% 4,018 0.6% 43
Spotsylvania County, Virginia 36.6% 16,623 62.8% 28,527 0.6% 295
Stafford County, Virginia 37.4% 17,208 62.0% 28,500 0.6% 278
Surry County, Virginia 55.5% 1,954 43.8% 1,543 0.7% 25
Sussex County, Virginia 55.7% 2,420 43.5% 1,890 0.8% 35
Tazewell County, Virginia 41.1% 7,184 57.4% 10,039 1.5% 257
Warren County, Virginia 37.3% 5,241 61.1% 8,600 1.6% 227
Washington County, Virginia 32.6% 7,339 65.5% 14,749 1.9% 426
Westmoreland County, Virginia 49.2% 3,370 50.1% 3,433 0.7% 45
Wise County, Virginia 40.5% 5,802 58.2% 8,330 1.3% 180
Wythe County, Virginia 31.0% 3,581 68.5% 7,911 0.5% 62
York County, Virginia 34.4% 10,276 64.9% 19,396 0.7% 208
Alexandria, Virginia 66.8% 41,116 32.3% 19,844 0.9% 555
Bedford, Virginia 41.0% 1,042 57.9% 1,472 1.1% 28
Bristol, Virginia 35.7% 2,400 63.6% 4,275 0.7% 49
Buena Vista, Virginia 39.2% 936 59.3% 1,417 1.5% 36
Charlottesville, Virginia 71.8% 11,088 27.0% 4,172 1.2% 190
Chesapeake, Virginia 42.3% 38,744 57.1% 52,283 0.6% 514
Colonial Heights, Virginia 25.0% 2,061 74.5% 6,129 0.5% 41
Covington, Virginia 51.2% 1,179 48.0% 1,104 0.8% 18
Danville, Virginia 49.4% 9,436 49.2% 9,399 1.4% 277
Emporia, Virginia 56.1% 1,247 43.7% 970 0.2% 4
Fairfax, Virginia 51.2% 5,395 47.8% 5,045 1.0% 106
Falls Church, Virginia 64.7% 3,944 34.0% 2,074 1.3% 80
Franklin, Virginia 54.0% 1,910 45.6% 1,613 0.4% 13
Fredericksburg, Virginia 54.2% 4,085 44.9% 3,390 0.9% 67
Galax, Virginia 42.3% 987 57.2% 1,336 0.5% 12
Hampton, Virginia 57.4% 32,016 42.0% 23,399 0.6% 326
Harrisonburg, Virginia 42.8% 4,726 55.9% 6,165 1.3% 139
Hopewell, Virginia 45.0% 3,573 53.6% 4,251 1.4% 112
Lexington, Virginia 57.0% 1,340 41.8% 982 1.1% 27
Lynchburg, Virginia 44.5% 11,727 54.7% 14,400 0.8% 213
Manassas, Virginia 43.1% 5,562 56.2% 7,257 0.7% 84
Manassas Park, Virginia 45.0% 1,498 54.2% 1,807 0.8% 27
Martinsville, Virginia 54.2% 3,036 45.3% 2,538 0.5% 29
Newport News, Virginia 52.0% 35,319 47.4% 32,208 0.6% 425
Norfolk, Virginia 61.7% 43,518 37.4% 26,401 0.9% 651
Norton, Virginia 48.2% 725 51.1% 768 0.7% 11
Petersburg, Virginia 81.0% 9,682 18.7% 2,238 0.2% 29
Poquoson, Virginia 22.0% 1,424 77.2% 5,004 0.8% 52
Portsmouth, Virginia 61.0% 24,112 38.5% 15,212 0.5% 210
Radford, Virginia 46.3% 2,244 52.9% 2,564 0.8% 37
Richmond, Virginia 70.2% 52,167 29.1% 21,637 0.7% 521
Roanoke, Virginia 52.4% 18,862 46.3% 16,661 1.3% 477
Salem, Virginia 37.0% 4,254 62.0% 7,115 1.0% 115
Staunton, Virginia 39.0% 3,756 60.3% 5,805 0.7% 68
Suffolk, Virginia 47.3% 15,233 52.1% 16,763 0.6% 193
Virginia Beach, Virginia 40.2% 70,666 59.1% 103,752 0.7% 1,269
Waynesboro, Virginia 35.1% 2,792 63.9% 5,092 1.0% 79
Williamsburg, Virginia 51.3% 2,216 47.8% 2,064 0.9% 40
Winchester, Virginia 42.5% 3,967 56.5% 5,283 1.0% 93

By congressional district

Bush won 9 of 11 congressional districts.[15]

District Bush Kerry Representative
1st 60% 39% Jo Ann Davis
2nd 58% 42% Thelma Drake
3rd 33% 66% Robert C. Scott
4th 57% 43% Randy Forbes
5th 56% 43% Virgil Goode
6th 63% 36% Bob Goodlatte
7th 61% 38% Eric Cantor
8th 35% 64% Jim Moran
9th 60% 39% Rick Boucher
10th 55% 44% Frank Wolf
11th 50% 49% Thomas M. Davis

Electors

Main article: List of United States presidential electors, 2004

Technically the voters of Virginia cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Virginia is allocated 13 electors because it has 11 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 13 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 13 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for President and Vice President. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004 to cast their votes for President and Vice President. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 13 were pledged for Bush/Cheney:

  1. Yvonne McGee McCoy
  2. Loretta H. Tate
  3. Theodore C. Brown
  4. Woodrow Harris
  5. Keith C. Drake
  6. Wendell S. Walker
  7. Peter E. Broadbent
  8. Sean Michael Spicer
  9. Lloyd C. Martin
  10. Dorothy L. Simpson
  11. Carlton John Davis
  12. Charles E. Dane
  13. Rebecca Anne Stoeckel

References

  1. ^ http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/members/2004/Pred2.htm#NW
  2. ^ http://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/polls.php?fips=51
  3. ^ http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/george_w_bush.asp?cycle=04
  4. ^ http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/john_f_kerry.asp?cycle=04
  5. ^ "CNN.com Specials". CNN. http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/president/tracking/. 
  6. ^ "CNN.com Specials". CNN. http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/president/campaign.ads/. 
  7. ^ Sweeney, James R. (1999). ""Sheep without a Shepherd": The New Deal Faction in the Virginia Democratic Party". Presidential Studies Quarterly 29: 438. doi:10.1111/1741-5705.00043. http://www.questia.com/googleScholar.qst?docId=5001263885. Retrieved March 31, 2008. 
  8. ^ Burchett, Michael H. (Summer 1997). "Promise and prejudice: Wise County, Virginia and the Great Migration, 1910–1920". The Journal of Negro History 82 (3): 312. doi:10.2307/2717675. JSTOR 2717675. 
  9. ^ Eisman, Dale (October 25, 2006). "Webb, Allen court Hispanic, white-collar voters in N. Va.". The Virginian-Pilot. http://hamptonroads.com/node/172411. Retrieved March 29, 2008. 
  10. ^ Turque, Bill; Wiggins, Ovetta; Stewart, Nikita (February 13, 2008). "In Virginia, Results Signal A State in Play for November". The Washington Post. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/02/12/AR2008021203200_pf.html. Retrieved September 29, 2008. 
  11. ^ Miller, Gary; Schofield, Norman (May 2003). "Activists and Partisan Realignment in the United States". The American Political Science Review 97 (2): 245–260. JSTOR 3118207. 
  12. ^ Craig, Tim (December 11, 2007). "Tensions Could Hurt Majority in Va. Senate". The Washington Post. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/story/2007/12/10/ST2007121001571.html. Retrieved December 23, 2007. 
  13. ^ "State Political Profile: Virginia". The Washington Post. Associated Press. 2006. Archived from the original on August 24, 2007. http://web.archive.org/web/20070824081838/http://projects.washingtonpost.com/elections/keyraces/56/state-profile/. Retrieved December 23, 2007. 
  14. ^ Clemons, Michael L.; Jones, Charles E. (July 2000). "African American Legislative Politics in Virginia". Journal of Black Studies 30 (6, Special Issue: African American State Legislative Politics): 744–767. doi:10.1177/002193470003000603. JSTOR 2645922. 
  15. ^ http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/4161/

See also
United States elections, 2004 · Candidates  · Debates · Timeline · Super Tuesday · Potomac primary · Mini-Tuesday · International reaction (Canada)
Republican Party
Convention • Primaries •
Primary results
Nominee: George W. Bush (campaign)
VP nominee: Dick Cheney
Candidates: John Buchanan
Democratic Party
Convention • Primaries •
Primary results
Controversies
 
Constitution Party
Convention
Nominee: Michael Peroutka
VP nominee: Chuck Baldwin
Green Party
Convention
Nominee: David Cobb
VP nominee: Pat LaMarche
Candidates: Sheila Bilyeu · Peter Camejo  · Paul Glover  · Kent Mesplay  · Lorna Salzman
Libertarian Party
Convention
Nominee: Michael Badnarik
VP nominee:Richard Campagna
Candidates: Gary Nolan · Aaron Russo
Personal Choice Party
Nominee: Charles Jay
VP nominee: Marilyn Chambers
Prohibition Party
Nominee: Gene Amondson · Alternate nominee: Earl Dodge
Socialist Equality Party
Socialist Party USA
Nominee: Walt Brown
VP nominee: Mary Alice Herbert
Candidates: Eric Chester
Socialist Workers Party
Nominee: Róger Calero · Alternate nominee: James Harris
VP nominee: Arrin Hawkins
Workers World Party
Nominee: John Parker
VP nominee: Teresa Gutierrez
Independents and other candidates
Other 2004 elections: House • Senate • Gubernatorial